> „Yeah, you can beat the market in the long run
Da li si umesto ”can„ hteo da napises ”canNOT„ ili ”can't„? :) Uzgred, kako vi izgovarate ”can't„: americki (kent) ili britanski (kant)?

I ako može jedna sala... što se nisi na to ”uvredio„ da ga pitas zašto kaže ”*you* canNOT beat the market„. What do you mean *I* cannot beat it? Is that something personal? Are you saying that I'm dumb? Or are you saying that I'm below-average? I'm from Serbia; all people from Serbia are above-average (even for Serbia :).”

Nije nemoguće da se market pobedi, samo je jako teško. Eto sa ovog foruma NIKO nije pobedio market u poslednjih 7 godina. Najbolji rezultat je NII portfolio, koji je objavljen pre 7 godina i prati se od onda. Niko drugi nije ništa ni objavio. Neko kaže da ima neki portfolio od pre dve godine, ali i to je valjda islo losije od marketa ako dobro razumem, plus se i ne prati redovno.

Znaci, nije nemoguće, samo je toliko teško da ni ne vredi pokusavati. :) A vrlo je važno razumeti da ako ne pobedis, onda gubis! Nema nereseno. Tvoj rezultat se meri u odnosu na indeks. Ne meri se u odnosu na apsolutnu nulu. Ako market skoci 9%, ti ne možeš reci „ja sam zadovoljan sa 5%, jer sam u plusu”. Ne, nisi u plusu. Ti si u minusu nekih 4% u odnosu na indeks.

Ostavite ovde CEO PORTFOLIO unapred, pratite par godina javno, pa da onda vidimo kako sve to ide. Ovako pojedinacno pisanje o nekim akcijama, naročito u nazad, ne pomaze mnogo. Kad se nešto napise unapred, onda ispadne kao CUU.V (minus ko zna koliko) ili AAPL opcije (-25% kako je Stef objasnio).

Ako necete ceo portfolio da objavite javno iz nekog nerazumljivog razloga (ne pita niko za apsolutan iznos novca koji imate nego samo ostavite relativan odnos akcija, ili relativan iznos u odnosu na platu, ili relativno u odnosu na nešto treće), onda eto mozete sami lično da sracunate svoj rezultat za svoj privatni portfolio, pa da objavite ovde. Samo morate da dokazete da znate da racunate prinos na CEO PORTFOLIO ne na individualne transakcije.

@malimx6
> ne bi da zapocinjem RAT ali sam slučajno naletio na ovaj jedan komentar koji bi trebao zapravo da zaustavi ovaj RAT

Nema rata. Ovo sto si ti ostavio kaže da je indeks prosek i da na tome može da se zaradi bez mnogo truda:

> index investing works, but you are piggybacking on the efforts of others.

Takođe kaže da na kraci rok neko mora bude da bolji od proseka, a neko losiji od proseka:

> somebody else may beat you with a narrow group of stocks and somebody else may trail you

Ono što ne kaže je da na duzi rok jako mali broj ljudi može da bude bolji od proseka. Eto, i Profesor je bio pisao kako je jako mali broj ljudi koji pobeduju berzu. Sa ovog foruma ne znam nikoga ko je to uradio. (I lično sam ispod indeksa, ali za neki minimalan MER od 0,10-0,20%.)

MAJOR INVESTMENT STYLE:

INDEX INVESTORS

------------------------

MINOR INVESTMENT STYLES:

ALL OTHERS :)

> zašto je berza jedina gde se savetuje prosek

Odlično pitanje, Stef!

Kratak odgovor je da masa istrazivanja pokazuje da je jako mali broj ljudi koji su bili bolji od berze na duzi rok. Ta istrazivanja su radjena i na individualnim investitorima i na menadzerima fondova. Za individualne investitore nije radjeno tako da njih pitaju za rezultat koji možda/verovatno ne znaju da sracunaju nego tako što se uzmu njihove transakcije od brokera i onda sracuna rezultat za njih, ukljucujuci i koliko su zaradili/izgubili apsolutno i koliko su zaradili/izbuili u odnosu na rizik koji su preuzeli. Za menadzere fondova je dosta podataka javno dostupna, ali ih treba sve sakupiti i obraditi da bi se videlo da su u proseku ispod indeksa. (I biranje menadzera koji će biti uspesniji od indeksa je vrlo teško, kao i biranje pojedinacnih akcija.) Na stranu još sto su rezultati investitora u fond često losiji nego rezultati fonda posto investitori udju nakon što fond skoci i izadju nakon što fond padne.

To da je jako mali broj ljudi koji su bolji od berze na duzi rok jednostavno JESTE tako. Ne može se videti iz malog broja pojedinacnih primera, ali istrazivanja koja su gledala u velike brojeve to uvek nalaze, i za razne vremenske periode i za razne države i za razne stilove investiranja.

Duže pitanje je zašto je zašto to JESTE tako? Kako to da nema vise ljudi koji su bolji od proseka? Čak ih nema ni toliko koliko bi se ocekivalo jednostavno na osnovu sreće. Recimo da je svake godine pola ljudi iznad indeksa posla ispod. (Mada nije nego je pola para iznad a pola ispod.) To pola-pola bi bilo kad da bacas novcic pismo-glava. Kad bacis novcic 10 puta zaredom, sanse su 1:1.000 da bude 10 dobitaka. Znaci, ako imaš ~12.000 investitora koje posmatras (recimo menadzera fondova), to znači da bi ~12 trebalo da budu iznad proseka svake godine u poslednjih 10 godina samo na osnovu sreće. Međutim, obična ta brojka bude znatno manja, npr. 1, 2, 3, koji onda privuku značajnu medijsku paznju, dobiju vise para, i onda obično krenu da budu ispod proseka nakon toga.

Da li ti meni verujes da je zaista jako mali broj ljudi koji su bili bolji od berze na duzi rok? Ili hoćeš da ti navedem istrazivanja; da li bi verovao njima?

Treće pitanje je onda licnog rezultata. Ti možeš reci: „okej, verujem ja tebi (ili tim istrazivanjima ili kome već verujes) da je 90% ili 95% ili 99% ljudi ispod tog proseka, ali zašto ne bih ja mogao da budem iznad tog proseka”? Ja ne kažem da ti sigurno ne možeš, ali kažem da su sanse jako jako male. Mislim da to što je neko bio dobar u skoli ili dobar u sahu ne predvidja koliko će biti dobar u investiranju. Napamet ne znam da li je iko gledao kako uspeh u sahu predvidja uspeh u investiranju, ali nije nemoguće da čak i to postoji. Ne znam da li to vredi traziti ako si ti već uveren da te ništa ne bi ubedilo da ti lično ne možeš da pobedis indeks. Ja sam tebi lično ponovio „milion” puta: nemam ja ništa protiv toga da ti lično probaš da pobedis indeks. Ali kad dodju drugi ljudi na forum nemoj im reci „svako može da pobedi indeks” nego im objasni koji su rizici i koliko su im (male) sanse da to urade. Onda oni mogu sami da odluce da li da ulaze u te rizike ili ne.

> investiranje bez razmišljanja.

Nije investiranje kroz indekse apsolutno bez razmljisljanja nego treba prvo dobro da se razmisli da se napravi plan unapred. Zatim treba taj plan da se revidira kad ima većih promena u zivotu (ne na berzi!), npr. promene za decu, bracni status, značajna promena na poslu... Na kraju treba dosta snage da se pridržava tog plana bez obzira da li berza isla gore ili dole! Eto moj plan o indeksima je napravljen pre oko 15 godina. Vidi koliko samo vi na ovom forumu pricate da „ima nešto sigurno bolje”. Treba znati ignorisati takve komentare (nije to ništa lično, čujem ja i od drugih kako se može biti bolji od indeksa, ali oni zaboravljaju da kažu da se može biti i losiji).

Evo šta kažu da je masa drugih ljudi rekla/napisala (nemam tacne izvore za sve ovo, ali može da se gugla):

„It should come as no surprise that behavioral finance research makes a strong case for buying and holding low-cost, broadly diversified index funds.” American Association of Individual Investors

„Personally I think indexing wins hands down, after tax, active management just can't win.” Ted Aronson, adviser and fund manager.

„In every asset class where they are available, Index! Four of five funds will fail to meet or beat an appropriate index.” Frank Armstrong, author, financial adviser

„There can be no question that indexing for most categories of taxable investors and for most marketable conditions, will outperform conventional active management.” Robert Arnott, CEO First Quadrant

„With returns corrected for survivorship bias, the average actively managed fund trails the market by about 3 percentage points a year.” Baer & Gensler, authors

„The surest way to make money in the stock market is not to work very hard at it. Don't try to outsmart the market; settle for matching it. Put most of your money in an index mutual fund.” Gary Belsky, author

„Indexing virtually guarantees you superior performance. Bill Bernstein, author & financial adviser

”I own no actively managed funds. They are all index funds because I'm a skeptic about active management.„ Peter Bernstein, author

”Keep it simple. Make index funds the core, or all of your portfolio.„ The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing”

With an index fund--the certainty of keeping up with the market is a very worthwhile trade-off for the possibility of beating it.„ Jack Brennan, Vanguard CEO

”It's extremely difficult to beat the market.„ Peter Brimlow, Forbes senior editor

”Searching through a list of 234 domestic equity funds that have survived for 20 years, only 31 did better than the Vanguard 500 Index. That means the odds are really, really poor that any of us will do better than a low-cost broad index fund.„ Scott Burns, syndicated columnist

”Four years ago I was a fan of index funds. Today I am a true believer.„ Jonathan Clements, senior writer, Wall Street Journal

”After a lifetime of picking stocks, I have to admit that Bogle's arguments in favor of the index fund have me thinking of joining him rather than trying to beat him.„ Jim Cramer

”Standard & Poor's 500 stock index returned 9.1% for the 20-year period through 2010, but the average investor in stocks earned just 3.8%.„ Dalbar study.

”Since 1976 the Vanguard index funds have produced a compound annual return of 12%, better than three-quarters of its pear group.„ Jonathon Davis, London Spectator (2007)

”Indexing is a marvelous technique, I wasn't a true believer, I was just an ignoramus. Now I am a convert. Indexing is an extraordinarily sophisticated thing to do.„ Douglas Dial, former CREF portfolio manager.

”An index fund has three all-important advantages: it offers the investor the theoretical maximum expected return for its level of risk; it charges the lowest fees; and because of its low turnover, it keeps commissions to a minimum as well as taxes.„ Michael Edesess, author and adviser

”The best plan for most of us, is to commit to buying some index funds and do nothing else.„ Charles Ellis, author

”History shows that in the long run a thoughtfully designed, diversified strategy of 'passive' funds typically beats all but a few active managers.„ Prof. Eugene Fama

Independent research studies indicate that actively managed portfolios fail to outperform passive compterized portfolios.” Dr. Paul Farrell, author

„I was not always an obnoxious indexing zealot. Ten years of believing in and selling active management strategies in the brokerage industry made me this way.” Rick Ferri, CFA, author & financial adviser

„Buy and hold. Diversify. Put your money in Index Funds.” Justin Fox, Fortune senior writer

„If it weren't for noise, 98% of investors would see what's going on and buy passive strategies.” Ken French, Renown researcher

„The accelerating advances being made in information processing technologies will undoubtedly drive the markets to become even more efficient in the future. It thus will become increasingly unlikely that anyone will be able to consistently beat the market.” Roger Gibson, author

„Index funds save on management and marketing expenses, reduce transaction costs, defer capital-gain, and control risk--and in the process, beat the vast majority of actively manage mutual funds.” Good & Hermansen, authors

„Active portfolio management thus tends to generate lower returns and higher taxes.” John Haslem, author, „Mutual Funds: Risk and Performance Analysis”

„The low-cost index fund is one of the most useful financial inventions in history. Boring but beautiful.” Morgan Housel, author

„When you realize how few advisors have beaten the market over the last several decades, you may acquire the discipline to do something even better: Become a long-term index fund investor.” Mark Hulbert

„In short, the diversification advantage offered by indexing can't be matched by any actively managed portfolio, whether it holds mutual funds or individual stocks and or bonds, or some combination thereof.” Index Funds Advisors.

„I recommend that the long-term buy-and-hold portion of your equity portfolio be invested in index mutual funds.” Sheldon Jacobs, author

„Numerous studies have shown that it takes 2%-3% of alpha for a conventional actively managed portfolio to
match the after-tax returns of ”plain vanilla„ indexing.” Jeffrey and Arnott, authors

„You are virtually guaranteed to outperform more than two-thirds of actively managed funds with low cost index funds.” Chris Jones, CEO Financial Engines

„They're just not going to do it (beat the market). It's just not going to happen. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate

”If you buy these large, broad indices, you don't have to worry about over-performing or under-performing.„ Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC host.

”Beating an index is no piece of cake anywhere in the style box.„ Russell Kinnel, Morningstar director of fund research

”It is very hard, if not impossible, to justify active management for most individual investors.„ Mark Kritzman, President WCM

”Simple buy-and-hold index investing is one of the best, most efficient ways to grow your money. Michael Lebouf, Ph.D., author

„The fund industry's dirty little secret: most actively managed funds never do as well as their benchmark.” Arthur Levitt, Chairman, SEC

„The combined average annual return for stock and bond index funds was 8.7% versus 6.7% for actively managed stock and bond funds in the 20-year period ended December 31, 2010.” Lipper Inc.

Ne mogu ovde da se ostave dugacke poruke, pa sam presekao otprilike na pola da sledeći post krene od legendarnog Piter Linca ciji je fond bio pobedio market na duzi period.